Impact of European Countries Halting AZN

Suspension of AZN due to blood clot fears could push back EU immunisation by several weeks.

Our proprietary forecast suggests that the current country-level suspensions of AstraZeneca will delay the EU's efforts to vaccinate 75% of its population by two weeks (to end August).  A complete cessation of the use of AZN will push this date back further into the end of September. It would also put additional pressure on member states to secure vaccines that are yet to be approved. 

Currently, there is no scientific data published that supports these blood clot concerns. Looking at the number of doses thus far delivered: 10 million doses of AstraZeneca have been delivered to the EU, while 100 million doses have been delivered worldwide, with 14 million to the UK. To date there have been no reports of increased blood clot prevalence consequent to administering the AZN vaccine outside of the EU.

An investigation has noted that the number of blood clots is in line with the expected prevalence within a population, however further investigations are ongoing.