Airfinity’s Q1 COVID-19 vaccine revenue forecast more accurate than market consensus

Posted on May 12, 2022

Airfinity’s Q1 COVID-19 vaccine revenue forecast beat market consensus figures to more accurately predict earnings last quarter. 

Our analysis estimated Pfizer would generate $12.2 Billion, a figure that was only 7.8% off the company’s results, 10.4 percentage points closer than the market consensus predictions. 

Similarly, our sales expectations for Moderna was $80 million closer than the market consensus, just 12.5% off the reported revenue. Our forecasts for J&J and Novavax too, being only 18.4% and 16% off what the companies reported. 

Airfinity’s Q1 and 2022 COVID-19 vaccine revenue forecast has predicted a fall in demand for the year ahead and it downgraded our previous sales expectations. 

Our team of expert analysts use a unique methodology and approach to these predictions which allow us to provide our subscribers with in depth and high value analysis. We collate publicly available data from over 250 countries and in 20 different languages, always taking into account market changes, including new vaccine candidates, trial results and any other aspects that could have a significant impact on our analysis.

This holistic approach to data enables us to be more responsive to market shifts and to outperform the market consensus in our revenue forecasts. In our Q3 2021 COVID-19 vaccine revenue forecast readout, our predictions for AZ were only 1% off the figure reported by the vaccine producer, whilst analyst consensus turned out to be 30% below the actual figure. Likewise, for our Q4 forecast we predicted that AZ would outperform market consensus. As a result, our readout was only 11% under the company’s reported revenue whereas the consensus was 44% off that figure. 

The graph below shows a comparison of our Q1 2022 predictions to the market consensus and the company’s reported vaccine revenues:

Airfinity’s Analytics Director Dr. Matt Linley says, “Our team works tirelessly to build and develop incredibly accurate and granular datasets. This allows us to do strong and reliable analysis such as this one. This level of accuracy is invaluable for our clients as it helps them make better informed decisions.” 

To view our full Q1 and 2022 COVID-19 Vaccine Revenue Forecast download for free here

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