Airfinity’s analysis of vaccine stock in Western countries has found there are 500 million vaccine doses available to redistribute this month (360 million of which have not been earmarked for donations) and potentially 1.2 billion by the end of the year (1.06 billion of which have not been earmarked for donations).
The analysis considers the available supply of vaccines in the U.S, UK, EU, Canada and Japan. It predicts what these nations need going forward and the amount of vaccines that are available to be sent elsewhere.
It further assumes Western countries continue their vaccination programmes for everyone above 12 years old and also proceed with booster shots for their entire population.
On top of vaccine doses which are currently available, there are plenty coming down the line. Global vaccine production has scaled up fast, last month production hit a total of 6 billion doses produced to date.
Manufactures are currently producing 1.5 billion doses per month and this is expected to continue growing. 11.3 billion doses are required to vaccinate the world’s population and Airfinity forecasts output to reach that level by the end of 2021. G7 countries and the EU have pledged over 1 billion doses, of which less than 15% thus far has been delivered.
Airfinity’s co-founder and CEO Rasmus Bech Hansen says: “The world has reached a tipping point when it comes to vaccine availability and production. For large Western countries the challenge is no longer supply, but demand. The global supply chain is successfully increasing production and our detailed forecast shows that high income countries can have confidence that there is plenty of vaccines coming and this should reduce the need for stockpiling.
“How these stocks are distributed, where they go and whether they are re-sold or donated is ultimately a political decision. With these numbers, I believe the world has a better basis for making these critical allocation decisions and avoiding wasted doses”.
This report is a summary version with the full report being released as part of a global media briefing with the IFPMA on Tuesday 7th September at 13.30 BST.
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