Airfinity has downgraded its global sales forecast for COVID-19 vaccines this year from $80.8bn to $64.1bn.
Analysis of vaccine production, deliveries, supply deals and doses administered shows demand is falling and with it vaccine sales.
Vaccination rates around the world have rapidly dropped since the start of 2022. Airfinity forecasts annual demand to be 6 billion doses this year, falling to between 2-4 billion in 2023 and beyond.
Production has also begun to slow as demand dwindles. Notably production of the Astrazeneca vaccine has been reduced or stopped by several manufacturers. J&J also briefly halted production of its COVID-19 vaccine late last year to make another jab.
The mRNA vaccines dominated the market in 2021 and are set to continue this year. Our forecast lowers sales expectations for Pfizer and Moderna but the pair are predicted to take 88% of the market in 2022.
Pfizer was previously forecast to generate $42.7bn but this has been reduced by 15% to $36.4bn for 2022. Moderna’s sales expectations for 2022 have also been reduced by 27% from $25.7bn to $18.7bn.
Pfizer and Moderna have continued to sign new supply agreements this year when other vaccine manufacturers have not. However they are not immune from the wider trend of falling demand. New deals have slowed and some buyers have not taken up the contracted options they had reserved.
Novavax entered the market in Q1 2022 with contracted deals for 1.7bn doses but has so far delivered only 30 million doses. Airfinity’s forecast predicts Novavax to generate $2.74bn this year, a 41% drop from our previous forecast of $4.6bn.
In the first quarter Pfizer is expected to generate $12.2bn, the most Q1 sales of all manufacturers, but down 2.4% on the previous quarter. Moderna sales are predicted to be down 25% on the previous quarter. Astrazeneca and J&J predicted to face a 67% and 65% drop in revenue respectively from Q4 2021.
Airfinity’s Analytics Director Dr Matt Linley says, “The vaccine market has moved from high demand and constrained supply, to lower demand with more choice and reluctance from populations to take repeated shots. The world is currently sitting on stocks of 2.3 billion vaccine doses waiting to be used, with many lower and lower middle income countries struggling to roll out supplies. With Omicron variants causing less-severe disease, people don’t have the appetite for more doses. Data from third and fourth dose programmes in Israel and Chile shows uptake diminished by 25% for the booster and 50% for the fourth shot. A theme likely to be replicated in other countries.”