Airfinity is forecasting a 24.3% shortfall in deliveries to COVAX this year than is forecasted by the scheme.
COVAX is forecasting 1.86b vaccine doses to be delivered by the end of December 2021. Based on analysis of doses secured to date, Airfinity is forecasting this to be 1.407b doses delivered.
Airfinity’s number is lower due to several factors that are considered, rather than taking company projections at face-value, which have often not been realised. COVAX are expecting deliveries from vaccines that are yet to be approved and in some cases efficacy data is not yet available, such as Clover and Sanofi/GSK.
Airfinity’s forecasts also use real-time production data and historic trends in scale-up challenges, resulting in a lower output than COVAX have forecast, notably in candidates such as Novavax, who have shown many difficulties in their fragmented production network.