Airfinity forecasts the severely obese population with metabolic syndrome in the US to grow 50% by 2030 from 26 million to 39.1 million people.

Posted on Apr 28, 2023

Current estimates indicate 650 million people are obese globally. The US alone spends $173 Bn/year in obesity-related healthcare costs, across an obese population of 110 million adults. Projections suggest this obese population is increasing to 125 million by 2030, indicating expansion of the obesity drug market.

Key drivers of market growth

There are a few key determinants that will improve market penetration and uptake of anti-obesity drugs. The first is a positive readout from the ongoing SELECT phase 3 trial, due to complete in September 2023. SELECT will be pivotal in shaping the market future as it is the first long-term cardiovascular outcomes trial of an anti-obesity drug (Wegovy).

Positive results of this trial will likely be a catalyst for improving guideline inclusion and physician advocacy of anti-obesity medication, in addition to expand on indications for reimbursement and insurance coverage.

A positive SELECT trial will be a major market growth driver, even in only moderately, obese people, being a new drug class in the armamentarium for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, preventing new heart attacks and stroke.

Anti-obesity drug market projections

The combination of a positive readout from SELECT and the multitude of potential new drugs entering the market will likely facilitate guideline inclusion and price reductions, stimulating improved insurance coverage, increased rebates, and physician advocacy.

Under these circumstances, Airfinity forecast that treating half of all severely obese patients with metabolic syndrome would push the 2030 US market to ≈$80 Bn, treating ≈20 million people. If coverage is aligned with current type 2 diabetes treatment levels, then a market size of ≈$40 Bn is expected.

Nevertheless, the direct visual impact anti-obesity medication has on quality of life is not seen with diabetes therapies; hence, medication compliance and uptake is likely better, indicating the larger market size of $80 Bn is achievable.

Of course, attaining and maintaining a market of this level depends on improved insurer coverage, including reduced co-pay reliance and less high deductible healthcare plans, in addition to good patient adherence to treatment and any coverage-mandated lifestyle changes.

Learn more about our cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic capabilities here.

To discuss our obesity market forecasts in more detail, and receive a walkthrough of our predictive solutions in the cardiovascular, renal and metabolic space, get in touch via

More Insights From Airfinity

Introducing Airfinity Biorisk: Risk Surveillance and Analytics for 160+ Infectious Diseases

Oct 10, 2022

18 million monkeypox vaccines needed to protect most at risk, 85 million to protect wider gay community and health workers

Aug 25, 2022

Sales of COVID-19 antiviral pill Paxlovid to leap frog Merck’s competitor Molnupiravir

Jul 25, 2022

COVID-19 vaccines sales to bounce back with new jabs taking a fifth of the 2022 market

Jul 15, 2022

AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech saved over 12 million lives in the first year of vaccination

Jul 13, 2022

Global wastage of COVID-19 vaccines could be 1.1 billion doses

Jul 11, 2022