Airfinity forecasts the COVID-19 vaccine market is expected to reach $65.6B in 2021 and grow to $84.9B in 2022, a 29% growth. This excludes both the Chinese vaccines and market.
Our analysis predicts the 2022 market will be dominated by mRNA vaccines. Pfizer/BioNTech is expected to generate $42.7B and Moderna $25.7B. AstraZeneca is expected to be the third largest revenue generating vaccine with $4.3B in revenue, followed by J&J with $3.5B.
This would make the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccine the two best selling medical products in 2022.
Airfinity revenue forecast for COVID-19 vaccines in 2021 and 2022
→ The 2022 vaccine market will be shaped more by demand than vaccine supply, although some supply constraints are still expected. Airfinity predicts there will be greater demand for mRNA vaccines than can be fulfilled this year.
→ Many people in low and middle-income countries are not yet vaccinated and 3rd and 4th booster programs in the high-income countries will drive continued demand for vaccines.
→ Western vaccines are expected to continue to take market share from less effective Chinese vaccines.
→ The highly effective mRNA vaccines and a potential Omicron targeted vaccine are expected to drive higher pricing in 2022. As the world moves from pandemic to endemic all producers are expected to increase pricing.
Growth limiting factors:
This report has reduced Airfinity’s forecasts for overall sales growth from previous forecasts for the following reasons:
→ The significantly reduced severity of Omicron has reduced the number of doses per capita high-income countries are expected to purchase.
→ A reduction in observed new contracts being made in Q4 2021.
→ Lower price points for mRNA supply deals to lower income countries resulting in lower revenue.
Airfinity’s Chief Analytics Officer Claus Johansen says, “There has been growing demand for mRNA vaccines throughout 2021 and this is likely to continue. The technology will also benefit from being easier and faster to switch production to variant targeting jabs. We estimate Pfizer and Moderna will sell 5.4 billion doses this year but global demand is far greater than this”.
Airfinity’s Lead Analyst Dr Matt Linley says, “Our data shows AstraZeneca significantly increased deliveries of its vaccine at the end of 2021 and therefore revenue for Q4 is expected to be its highest yet. Despite the Serum Institute of India reducing production of the vaccine, demand is still strong. AstraZeneca has contracts rolling into 2022 and we expect new deals to be agreed and for a higher price. The vaccine is likely to come as a reliable second choice for countries which can’t secure or afford mRNA vaccines.”
*Analysis excludes the Chinese vaccines and market
*AstraZeneca revenue forecast excludes production and revenue from the Serum Institute of India