Airfinity’s antiviral revenue forecast shows Pfizer will dominate the market with sales of $17 billion for its antiviral pill Paxlovid, while Merck’s Molnupiravir will generate $2.5 billion.
The US is expected to be the biggest buyer of these pills with revenue estimated to be $10.8 billion. The EU and UK are expected to spend $4.9 billion.
Airfinity predicts Pfizer’s Paxlovid treatment will have the majority market share due to sustained higher efficacy in its full results from the high-risk EPIC-HR trial.
The forecast predicts sales of antiviral treatments based on the proportion of projected cases aimed to receive treatment, and the number of courses expected to be procured per case, by each country. The anticipated sales would take up 56% of Pfizer’s available Paxlovid production in 2022 and 25% of Merk’s Molnupiravir 2022 production.
Revenue generated from the rest of the world is estimated at $3.7bn. This excludes countries included in Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) agreements for Paxlovid and Molnupiravir. Airfinity predicts additional generic manufacturing under these agreements won't produce at scale until 2023.
Airfinity’s Lead Analyst for Treatments Dr Arsalan Azad says, “Antiviral treatments are the new frontier in the fight against Covid-19. Antiviral pills will be easier to produce, distribute and face less hesitancy than vaccines. But 2022 looks set to see a supply and demand mismatch, countries who can buy directly from Pfizer and Merck should be able to secure enough supply to treat their high risk populations. However the 112 countries in the MPP agreement may not get access to these pills in any meaningful capacity until 2023.”
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