Is the world ready for a bird flu pandemic? Airfinity assesses global vaccine stockpiles and preparedness

As the World Health Assembly meets this week in Geneva under the theme One World for Health, Airfinity publishes analysis on global pandemic preparedness looking at stockpiles and production agreements for pandemic influenza vaccines and antivirals. 

It comes as concerns grow about the risk that bird flu could become more transmissible to humans. H5N1 avian influenza has swept through wild birds and poultry since 2022. In late 2023, the virus mutated to infect cattle in the US, as well as other animals including marine animals, rodents, foxes and domestic cats. Bird flu has also infected 70 people in the US, with one death, since 2024.

EU has secured largest supply of pandemic influenza vaccines 

Airfinity analysis shows people in Europe will likely have the best access to a pandemic vaccine. The EU has secured deals for 450 million shots. Germany has also contracted 400 million, which would also be distributed within the EU. Totaling nearly a billion doses (950m) for the bloc nations. The US has the largest known stockpile of pre-pandemic vaccines with 20 million shots. It also contracted 250 million in reserved capacity in the event of another public health emergency. 

The analysis includes a mix of stockpiled or secured pre-pandemic vaccines which are ready to be used and reserved manufacturing capacity. Pre-pandemic vaccines have been created against known circulating strains of the H5N1 virus. In the event of an actual pandemic, vaccines which matched the circulating pandemic strain would be developed and deployed as quickly as possible.  However, over 80% of flu vaccines rely on slow, hard-to-scale egg methods which will limit rapid response, especially for countries without local manufacturing.

On a population level, the EU’s 450 million vaccines equals one dose per person. Germany would have 4.76 contracted doses per person, although excess supply would be distributed within the EU bolstered access across member states. Canada has enough for two shots per person and the UK has 1.5 per capita. 

In contrast, the US lacks enough vaccine doses to cover its entire population, with only 0.82 per person. Airfinity’s lead analyst Richard Bennett says, “It is perhaps not surprising that the US does not have enough doses stockpiled for its entire population given previous demand for pandemic vaccines. During the H1N1 swine flu pandemic in 2009, national coverage for all groups was only 27% and while COVID-19 primary series vaccine uptake was higher at 69.5%, it still fell short of full population coverage. However the US could potentially be exposed if demand was significantly higher than expected or if manufacturing failures left them with fewer doses than anticipated”.

Building a resilient vaccine supply chain

The European Union has the most diverse stockpile, securing contracts with multiple manufacturers including CSL Seqirus, GSK, and Pfizer. This will avoid dependency on a single supplier. This diversification is a blueprint for resilience, ensuring greater flexibility during emergencies and reducing exposure to geopolitical or logistical risks. In contrast, countries heavily reliant on a narrow supplier base risk disruption during a crisis, if development or production stalls or export bans are enforced as they were in 2021.

US has enough antivirals for 16% of the population

Countries also rely on antiviral treatments during a pandemic. Airfinity data shows that most countries aim for stockpiles covering 30–50% of their populations. The United States has the lowest population coverage of stockpiled antivirals with enough for 16% of its population. In comparison, the UK has enough for 50% of people, Australia has 40% coverage, while both Germany and France have stockpiles for 30% of their populations.

Most pandemic vaccines are manufactured in high income countries

Though global manufacturing capacity for influenza vaccines has remained steady at over 8 billion doses annually since 2019, the geographic concentration of production remains in high-income countries.

More than 85% of global pandemic influenza vaccines come from just seven manufacturers. With most production facilities located in North America, Europe, and parts of East Asia, low- and lower-middle-income countries face delays and dependence during pandemics.

While current preparedness levels vary sharply across countries, Airfinity’s analysis highlights systemic constraints—particularly around manufacturing methods and geographic concentration—that will shape future pandemic responses. As H5N1 continues to evolve, the limitations of egg-based production and the fragility of global supply chains underscore the importance of next-generation vaccine platforms, such as mRNA and cell-based technologies. These innovations, alongside broader investment in diversified manufacturing and real-time surveillance, could significantly alter the pace and equity of global response in the next influenza pandemic.

For more data-driven insights on pandemic preparedness and global health risk forecasting, reach out to contact@airfinity.com. 

Disclaimer: all data reported is based on publicly available sources. Some vaccine stockpile deals remain undisclosed.