COVID-19 vaccines sales to bounce back with new jabs taking a fifth of the 2022 market

Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are expected to see sales revenue fall significantly in the second quarter but rise again with new variant-targeting vaccine.

A new Airfinity forecast predicts revenue for Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine will fall by 63% from $13.2bn in the first quarter of the year, to $4.8bn in the second quarter.

Moderna is also expected to see sales drop by 62% to $2.3bn in the second quarter from $5.9bn in the previous quarter.

Today’s analysis is based on data tracking the delivery of doses to countries around the world and its estimates reflect the lower global demand for COVID-19 vaccines.

AstraZeneca is also forecast to see sales fall by 66% to $386mn in the second quarter relative to the previous quarter. Novavax and J&J are to buck the trend with revenue up by 32% and 29% respectively on the last quarter. 

Full year sales are forecast to bounce back for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna with the demand for new variant targeting jabs, which are predicted to make up to 21% of the market this year.

These second generation shots are expected to be used in autumn/winter vaccination campaigns around the world. 

Airfinity estimates Pfizer/BioNTech will generate $33bn this year from both its new and original vaccine, 3.6% above company guidance.

Moderna’s sales are expected to rebound with a forecast of $18.8bn for 2022. This is higher than last year’s revenue of $17.6bn but lower than the company’s guidance of $21bn. 

Airfinity’s Analytics Director Dr Matt Linley says, “Demand for vaccines, particularly in high income countries, has been falling since the beginning of the year. We have seen countries canceling or postponing orders. Most notably the EU and UK pushing back deliveries to wait for new variant targeting vaccines to become available. The African Union and Covax also declined the option to buy more Moderna vaccines.

“New COVID-19 vaccines will boost sales for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna later in the year. The EU and UK have said these Omicron adapted vaccines will be rolled out this autumn pending regulatory approval. The U.S. has also signed a deal for 105 million doses of Pfizer’s updated jab. Once approved we expected these vaccines to be delivered swiftly”.

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